Modelling Wind in the Electricity Sector

We represent hourly, regional an wind data and transmission constraints in an investment planning model calibrated to the UK and test sensitivities of least cost expansions to fuel and technology prices. Thus we can calculate the value of transmission expansions to the system. We represent limited public acceptance of wind and regional network constraints by maximum built rates per region and year. Thus we calculate the marginal value of improved planning and grid connection regimes. It is likely that some constraints will remain. Market designs that do not allow for regional differentiation to reflect transmission and planning constraints can increase overall costs to consumers

Implications of intermittency and transmission constraints for renewables deployment

We represent hourly, regional wind data and transmission constraints in an investment planning model calibrated to the UK and test sensitivities of least cost expansions to fuel and technology prices. Thus we can calculate the value of transmission expansions to the system. We represent limited public acceptance of wind and regional network constraints by maximum built rates per region and year. Thus we calculate the marginal value of improved planning and grid connection regimes. It is likely that some constraints will remain. Market designs that do not allow for regional differentiation to reflect transmission and planning constraints can increase overall costs to consumers.Investment planning model, wind power, constraint land, Network constraints.

Differentiation and Dynamics of Competitiveness Impacts from the EU ETS

We summarise the main factors that differentiate impacts of the EU ETS on profitability and market share. By examining and sampling a range of sectors, we present some simple metrics and indicators to help judge the nature of potential impacts. We also consider briefly the mitigation response to these impacts by sectors, and how they may evolve over time. The broad conclusion confirms the aggregate findings presented in the existing literature - more participating sectors are likely to profit under the current ETS structure out to 2012 at the cost of a modest loss of market share, but this may not hold for individual companies and regions. The period 2008-12 can assist technology investments and diversification, providing the continuation and basic principles of the EU ETS post-2012 is quickly defined and incentives are in place for sectors to pursue this

Differentiation and dynamics of competitiveness impacts from the EU ETS

We summarises the main factors that differentiate impacts of the EU ETS on profitability and market share. By examining sampling a range of sectors, we present some simple metrics and indicators to help judge the nature of potential impacts. We also consider briefly the mitigation response to these impacts by sectors, and how they may evolve over time. The broad conclusion confirms the aggregate findings presented in the existing literature - most participating sectors are likely to profit under the current ETS structure out to 2012 at the cost of a modest loss of market share, but this may not hold for individual companies and regions. The period 2008-12 can assist participating sectors to build experience and financial reserves for longer term technology investments and diversification, providing the continuation and basic principles of the EU ETS post-2012 is quickly defined and incentives are in place for sectors to pursue this.Emissions trading, industrial competitiveness, spillovers, allowance allocation, perverse incentives.

Space and Time: Wind in an Investment Planning Model

Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the applicability of the models for high penetrations of renewables. We provide a methodology to capture spatial variation in wind output in combination with transmission constraints. The representation of wind distributions with stochastic approaches or an extensive historic data set would exceed computational constraints for real world application. Hence we restrict the amount of input data, and use boot-strapping to illustrate the robustness of the results. For the UK power system we model wind deployment and the value of transmission capacity

Economic evaluations of psychosocial interventions in cancer: A systematic review

Objective: Although the effectiveness of many psychosocial interventions for people with cancer has been established, one barrier to implementation in routine clinical care is a lack of data on cost-effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review to assess the cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for improving psychological adjustment among people with cancer. Methods: Systematic review of the literature, study appraisal, and narrative synthesis. Results: Eight studies involving 1,668 patients were identified. Four of these reported outcomes in a cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) framework. Six studies reported psychosocial interventions to be cost-effective for improving health-related quality of life, mood, pain, distress, or fear of cancer progression, compared to usual care. Of the six psychosocial interventions identified as cost-effective, three were cognitive behavioural therapy based interventions, one was a nurse-delivered telephone follow-up plus educational group program, one was a group-based exercise and psychosocial intervention, and one was a series of 10 face-to-face or telephone-based individual support sessions delivered by a nurse. The quality of studies according to the CHEC-list criteria was good overall; however, some studies were limited by their choice of outcome measure and omission of important categories of costs. Conclusions: Several psychosocial interventions, particularly those based on cognitive behavioural therapy, have been demonstrated to represent good value for money in cancer care. Future research should include a clear definition of the economic question, inclusion of all relevant costs, and consideration of utility-based quality of life measures for QALY estimation. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42014006370

Economic evaluations of psychosocial interventions in cancer: A systematic review

Objective: Although the effectiveness of many psychosocial interventions for people with cancer has been established, one barrier to implementation in routine clinical care is a lack of data on cost-effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review to assess the cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for improving psychological adjustment among people with cancer. Methods: Systematic review of the literature, study appraisal, and narrative synthesis. Results: Eight studies involving 1,668 patients were identified. Four of these reported outcomes in a cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) framework. Six studies reported psychosocial interventions to be cost-effective for improving health-related quality of life, mood, pain, distress, or fear of cancer progression, compared to usual care. Of the six psychosocial interventions identified as cost-effective, three were cognitive behavioural therapy based interventions, one was a nurse-delivered telephone follow-up plus educational group program, one was a group-based exercise and psychosocial intervention, and one was a series of 10 face-to-face or telephone-based individual support sessions delivered by a nurse. The quality of studies according to the CHEC-list criteria was good overall; however, some studies were limited by their choice of outcome measure and omission of important categories of costs. Conclusions: Several psychosocial interventions, particularly those based on cognitive behavioural therapy, have been demonstrated to represent good value for money in cancer care. Future research should include a clear definition of the economic question, inclusion of all relevant costs, and consideration of utility-based quality of life measures for QALY estimation. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO Registration Number: CRD42014006370

Cost-Effectiveness of Skin Surveillance Through a Specialized Clinic for Patients at High Risk of Melanoma

Purpose Clinical guidelines recommend that people at high risk of melanoma receive regular surveillance to improve survival through early detection. A specialized High Risk Clinic in Sydney, Australia was found to be effective for this purpose; however, wider implementation of this clinical service requires evidence of cost-effectiveness and data addressing potential overtreatment of suspicious skin lesions. Patients and Methods A decision-analytic model was built to compare the costs and benefits of specialized surveillance compared with standard care over a 10-year period, from a health system perspective. A high-risk standard care cohort was obtained using linked population data, comprising the Sax Institute’s 45 and Up cohort study, linked to Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data, the cancer registry, and hospital admissions data. Benefits were measured in quality-adjusted life-years gained. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken for all model parameters. Results Specialized surveillance through the High Risk Clinic was both less expensive and more effective than standard care. The mean saving was A$6,828 (95$5,564 to $8,092) per patient, and the mean quality-adjusted life-year gain was 0.31 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.35). The main drivers of the differences were detection of melanoma at an earlier stage resulting in less extensive treatment and a lower annual mean excision rate for suspicious lesions in specialized surveillance (0.81; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.91) compared with standard care (2.55; 95% CI, 2.34 to 2.76). The results were robust when tested in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion Specialized surveillance was a cost-effective strategy for the management of individuals at high risk of melanoma. There were also fewer invasive procedures in specialized surveillance compared with standard care in the community

Improving subjective perception of personal cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis of educational interventions for people with cancer or at high risk of cancer

BACKGROUND: Newly diagnosed patients with cancer require education about the disease, the available treatments and potential consequences of treatment. Greater understanding of cancer risk has been found to be associated with greater health-related quality of life, improved psychological adjustment and greater health-related behaviours. The aim of this sytematic review was to assess the effectiveness of educational interventions in improving subjective cancer risk perception and to appraise the quality of the studies. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective observational studies. Eligible studies were identified via Medline, PsycINFO, AMED, CINAHL and Embase databases. After screening titles and abstracts, two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of 206 full-text articles. RESULTS: Forty papers were included in the review; the majority of studies were conducted among breast cancer patients (n = 29) and evaluated the effect of genetic counselling on personal perceived risk (n = 25). Pooled results from RCTs (n = 12) showed that, both in the short and long term, educational interventions did not significantly influence risk perception level (standardised mean difference 0.05, 95% CI -0.24-0.34; p = 0.74) or accuracy (odds ratio = 1.96, 95% CI: 0.61-6.25; p = 0.26). Only one RCT reported a short-term difference in risk ratings (p = 0.01). Of prospective observational studies (n = 28), many did demonstrate changes in the level of perceived risk and improved risk accuracy and risk ratings in both the short and long term. However, only one (of three) observational studies reported a short-term difference in risk ratings (p < = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Further development and investigation of educational interventions using good quality, RCTs are warranted